Matt Calkins: Seahawks might not be Super Bowl favorites, but bet against them at your own peril

Matt Calkins, The Seattle Times on Jul 22, 2026

Published in Football

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SEATTLE — Well, we probably won't be asking Mike Macdonald about it. As is well-documented, the SeatttleSeahawks coach does not care.

But despite winning the Super Bowl last season — in about as dominant fashion imaginable — Seattle is now fourth in the sportsbooks to win next year's Big Game.

Ahead of them are the Los Angeles Rams with 11-2 odds. Then the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills at 10-1 each. And then, the Seahawks at 11-1.

This is not going to be one of those "this team can't get respect" columns. Being fourth out of 32 — especially when you consider the Rams made the offseason's marquee trade in acquiring Myles Garrett — is plenty respectful.

But you wonder if there is a tinge of doubt based on the Seahawks' limited superstar power — that maybe some still see last year's run as three parts force and one part fluke.

As has been well-established, this Seattle team isn't brimming with A-listers the way that first Super Bowl-winning squad was back in 2014. Then, there was Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Marshawn Lynch, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner to name a few. The only player among last February's Super Bowl champions in that stratosphere is receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the winner of the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year Award. Nobody else on the roster managed to make first-team All-Pro.

If I had to make an inter-sport comparison, I would liken last year's Seahawks to the 2004 Detroit Pistons. Remember that team? The one that blitzed through the playoffs and beat the Shaq-and-Kobe-led Los Angeles Lakers in five despite dimmed star power? There were a lot of teams with better players. But that group was unstoppable as a collection.

That was basically last year's Seahawks. Why can't it be this year's?

Quarterback Sam Darnold might not be the next Patrick Mahomes, but he proved two things last year. The first is that his breakout season with the Minnesota Vikings in 2024 was not a one-off, and the second was that he can come through when the pressure is highest. The Seahawks wouldn't have beaten the Rams in the NFC Championship Game if he didn't throw for 346 yards and three TDs. Seattle has a legit QB.

The defense, meanwhile, brings back the core of a unit that led the league in points allowed last year. The last time Seattle did that was in the Legion of Boom days in 2016. Defensive end Leonard Williams is a year older, but at 32, has shown no sign of decline. Same goes for 34-year-old defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence. Linebacker Ernest Jones IV is back in blue and green after having the season of his career.

Perhaps more exciting for Seahawks fans is that cornerback Devon Witherspoon comes back for Year 4 healthy. Defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, who made a giant stride between his rookie season and second season, comes back for Year 3. And defensive back Nick Emmanwori, who finished second in the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, has the potential to break through as an All-Pro.

These are just a few select players. But the most important name might be Macdonald's. It's clear that the defensive guru isn't just someone with a system, but is someone capable of making key adjustments.

There were some serious questions about whether he'd actually made the "D better a few games into the 2024 season. But in the second half, the Seahawks were among the most defensively dominant teams in the league. And while Seattle was always solid on that side of the ball last year — it allowed 16 points or fewer in five of its final six regular-season games before dominating the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.

The main questions? Running back, obviously. The Seahawks drafted Notre Dame's Jadarian Price in the first round, but that's unlikely to make up for departed Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III. Health, too. Every team suffers injuries, and the Seahawks were no exception last year — but they remained mostly injury-free at the key positions when it mattered most.

There is also new ownership in the Khosla group, whom we're still learning about. And, of course, the upgraded Rams — who significantly outgained Seattle in all three meetings last year despite losing twice.

Still, this Seahawks team is loaded — whether it's the guys in helmets or headsets. Sportsbooks say they aren't the first team you should bet on. But based on what we've seen and who's returning, betting against them might seem silly.

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