SARAMENTO, Calif. — Rep. Doris Matsui, D-Sacramento, holds a narrow lead over progressive challenger Mai Vang in the final hours before the election in Sacramento’s closely watched congressional race, according to a new independent poll.

The poll, conducted by the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab and first shared with The Sacramento Bee, found that Matsui led Vang 41% to 36% among 442 likely voters in the 7th Congressional District. Another 16% of voters surveyed last week remained undecided. Matsui’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error, leaving the race too close to call.

“Slight edge to Matsui here, but tied in some ways statistically,” said Christian Grose, director of the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab, who led the poll.

The results offer the first in-depth look at voter sentiment in the contentious intraparty and generational battle for the 7th District, which includes downtown Sacramento and stretches from Lodi to parts of El Dorado County. Political experts have predicted the race will be close and could take weeks to determine a winner.

The findings point to an advantage for Matsui among undecided voters. When undecided likely voters were pressed to choose a candidate, Matsui’s lead grew to 49% to 39% over Vang.

Matsui also has a commanding lead among Republican voters — 57% to 14%.

That advantage among Republicans will likely be key to a Matsui victory, Grose said. Republicans account for roughly 28% of the district’s registered voters, according to the latest registration figures.

Previous Bee reporting found that several Republicans in the district will reluctantly support Matsui to prevent Vang from winning the seat. Their opposition is largely rooted in concerns that Vang is part of a growing socialist movement.

The poll found that 44% of district voters viewed the Democratic Socialists of America negatively, compared with 27% who viewed the group positively. Vang has rejected the socialist label, though she shares some policy positions with the national organization and is endorsed by its Sacramento chapter.

“Perhaps unsurprisingly, the DSA does not play as well as in the big cities like San Francisco or LA, and that’s one thing that could be hurting Vang,” Grose said.

Vang would benefit from lower Republican turnout, Grose added. The poll found that 29% of Republican voters do not intend to vote in the congressional contest. That figure is higher than the average rate of voters skipping the contest in previous Democrat-versus-Democrat races in California.

A Vang victory would likely hinge on higher-than-expected Democratic turnout. In the poll, she led Matsui 56% to 43% among Democratic voters. Vang also held some of her largest leads among younger voters, Latino voters and those who described themselves as working class.

Vang has spent much of the last few weeks mobilizing younger and progressive voters through in-person and online events.

“She needs to probably mobilize more Democrats to her side and hope for more Republicans to not cast a vote in this election,” Grose said.

The poll also highlighted the competing messages and critiques that have defined the campaign.

Vang has emphasized generational change and her progressive policies, while Matsui has portrayed herself as a more experienced leader with broader appeal.

Asked to describe the candidates, 26% of voters called 82-year-old Matsui “old.” The next most common descriptions were “experienced” and “out of touch.”

About 17% of voters described 41-year-old Vang as “young,” associated her with change or called her part of a “new generation.” Other common descriptions included “liberal” and “extremist.”

“It does make me wonder if a slightly less DSA-adjacent Democrat would have different numbers,” Grose said. “On the other hand, a more moderate Democrat might not have made it through the primary.”

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