Is Gov. Wes Moore vs. Cox debate about 2028? Analysts say yes

Tinashe Chingarande, Baltimore Sun on Sep 5, 2026

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BALTIMORE — Gov. Wes Moore has only ever participated in two televised gubernatorial debates.

But Democratic and Republican strategists say that his third — a showdown with GOP nominee Dan Cox on Oct. 6 hosted by Maryland Public Television — could be more about preparing for a potential presidential run rather than outlining his vision for the state.

Moore has a 27-point lead in the polls and a $6.4 million cash advantage over Cox, and both Republican and Democrat strategists as well as several political analysts said he doesn’t need the debate to secure victory.

Instead, they said, this debate could help Moore build to the national stage.

Moore has repeatedly said publicly he has no plans to run for president in 2028, yet has made repeated trips to events or states typically frequented by presidential-candidate hopefuls, such as a recent voter mobilization tour in South Carolina, stops seen as crucial to winning national elections.

When The Baltimore Sun asked Moore’s campaign why he’s participating in the debate despite the polls projecting him to beat Cox by a wide margin, the governor’s campaign spokesman Carter Elliott said, “While Marylanders hear Governor Moore’s vision to keep growing the economy, continue driving down crime, and make life more affordable for everyone, they’ll also see the MAGA agenda Dan Cox threatens to bring to Maryland, and a reminder of why they overwhelmingly rejected him four years ago.

Elliott declined to talk about Moore making a possible presidential run.

Cox did not respond to requests for comment by publication deadline.

Republican strategist Jim Burton told The Sun in an interview that the governor can use the debate to address voter concerns in front of a statewide audience. Should he perform well, it would bolster his chances of beating Cox by an even wider margin than in 2022, Burton said.

Doing so would add to Moore’s credibility amongst 2028 presidential primary voters, Burton said.

“Moore’s team probably feels confident going into this debate,” Burton said. “They want to demonstrate the differences between themselves and Dan Cox’s vision, and [know] that the voters of Maryland are going to agree with the governor’s position.

John Dedie and Todd Eberly, politics professors at the Community College of Baltimore County and St. Mary’s College, respectively, agreed. Increasing his lead in the polls could give Moore’s campaign something to hang its hat on nationally while affording him debate practice, they said.

“You want to be able to put the message that I’m out there, and I am willing to defend, debate, and discuss these ideas that are essential to Democrats,” Eberly said.

“A Democrat in Missouri doesn’t understand the Maryland dynamics, but they may say, ‘Boy, he must be really good because he beat this guy bigger than the last time,'” Dedie added.

A chance to outline vision for state

The upcoming debate will be the first time Moore and Cox appear together ahead of the general election to outline and defend their respective visions for the state for the next four years.

Cox repeatedly called for Moore to face off against him on the debate stage after he won the GOP nomination in June, but the governor didn’t respond until last week when he officially challenged the Republican nominee to one debate in October. Cox has since asked for at least two more debates before the general elections, but Moore hasn’t yet commented.

During the 2022 election cycle, Moore repeatedly declined requests to debate Cox, arguing that a public forum with the Republican would allow him to repeat false conspiracy theories about the 2020 presidential election. The governor eventually agreed to one debate with Cox, attacking him on his far-right positions and record of opposing abortion rights during his time in the General Assembly.

Debate still useful to local voters

Even if Moore has national ambitions, the debate can still serve Marylanders, said Andy Ellis, a first-time gubernatorial candidate appearing on the November ballot under the Green Party. Ellis, who is not participating in Maryland Public Television’s debate, said “people have suspicions” that Moore is running for president. However, he said he believes the October debate will be useful to educate Maryland voters.

“The people of Maryland have an opportunity to see the different choices that they have on the ballot, and I think that, to me, is more important in this governor’s race than whatever Wes Moore plans on doing after this election,” Ellis, who also lost his bid for the Maryland House of Delegates in 2018, said.