Mandelson vetting fiasco leaves Starmer looking like lame duck

LONDON — Forty-eight hours of brutal public inquiry into Keir Starmer’s judgment have left the prime minister looking increasingly like a leader on his way out.

Starmer had already been battling for months to save his job before a former top Foreign Office official alleged on Tuesday that he was pressured by 10 Downing St. to approve Peter Mandelson’s appointment as Britain’s envoy to Washington. The official, Olly Robbins, told a parliamentary committee that the prime minister’s office was “dismissive” in its approach to the security vetting that would ultimately raise red flags about the Labour grandee’s background.

Robbins’ testimony, coming the day after Starmer himself faced a grilling in the House of Commons, provided a graphic postmortem of a personnel decision that has shaken the Labour government. The claims and counterclaims laid bare Starmer’s struggle to adapt to President Donald Trump’s return to power and his behind-the-scenes battle with the civil servants who manage the British state.

Moreover, the episode deepened fears that Starmer might never be able to quiet a scandal that has consumed his premiership since September, when Bloomberg reported new details about the extent of Mandelson’s relationship with the late pedophile financier, Jeffrey Epstein. Gone was another crucial week to improve the Labour Party’s grim outlook ahead of a round of local elections on May 7.

While Labour MPs, ministers and aides interviewed by Bloomberg on Tuesday didn’t expect Starmer to leave before those elections, several said the latest Mandelson revelations had increased the chances that he faces a leadership challenge after the results. One Member of Parliament noted that Starmer’s former deputy, Angela Rayner, had been more visible in the halls of Westminster in recent days, while another pointed to what they saw as tepid support for Starmer during debates.

Robbins’ testimony left key questions unanswered, such as who exactly in Starmer’s office had applied the pressure he alleged, or what security issues vetting officials had flagged. Such details could still come to light, ensuring the scandal continues to chip away at Starmer’s credibility.

A third Labour MP described Starmer as suspended above an elephant trap — still kicking, but one blow could drop him into the pit. The prime minister was safe largely because there was no consensus on a successor, said the person, who like several others interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity so as not to appear disloyal.

Rayner hasn’t yet resolved a tax issue that forced her to resign in September. Health Secretary Wes Streeting hails from Labour’s right wing and needs to broaden his base. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham doesn’t hold the necessary seat in Parliament, in part because Starmer’s allies blocked him from seeking one earlier this year.

“The fact that he’s in Manchester rather than Westminster is the only thing keeping Keir Starmer in the job,” James Cleverly, a Conservative MP who previously served as foreign secretary and home secretary, told Sky News. “There isn’t an obvious candidate to replace him.”

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has led a chorus of calls from opposition benches in recent days for Starmer to resign, arguing that he broke the Ministerial Code by misleading the House of Commons over Mandelson. While some Labour ministers have rejected those criticisms during media appearances, there hasn’t been anything resembling the outpouring of Cabinet support in February that helped rescue Starmer the last time the Mandelson revelations flared up.

“The quiet, reasonable majority of people do not want a change of prime minister,” Allison Gardner, a Labour MP, said as the Conservatives led a three-hour debate on Starmer’s actions. “People value a stable government, a government that focuses on matters people really care about.”

Still, the persistent uproar over the Mandelson appointment raises new questions about how much focus Starmer could give to other issues. An announcement by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves of plans to weaken the link between gas and electricity prices on Tuesday was largely overshadowed by the drama elsewhere in the Palace of Westminster.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, himself an oft-mentioned contender to succeed Starmer, acknowledged during an appearance to promote those plans that he had feared Mandelson’s appointment “could blow up and go wrong.” Starmer allies feared the furor had dashed hopes that the prime minister could capitalize on his decision to stay out of Trump’s strikes on Iran to boost Labour in the run up to the local elections.

Instead, attention centered on the arcane rules and conventions of decision making in Westminster, where Robbins explained how he stood by his decision to approve Mandelson’s security clearance without discussing the action with No. 10 or ministers. The 51-year-old veteran of the civil service service nonetheless said he felt an “atmosphere of pressure” from No. 10 to “get it done” ahead of Trump’s second inauguration last year.

One MP argued that while the Robbins testimony was disastrous for Starmer, the facts surrounding Mandelson’s vetting were messy. It wasn’t clear whether Robbins or the prime minister was right about the process, they said.

That helps explain why no member of Starmer’s Cabinet has so far broken ranks and called for him to go. Another reason is timing. Potential challengers like Rayner and Streeting want to see the May 7 elections play out before they move.

Rayner played down down the Mandelson scandal during an appearance at a growth conference on Tuesday, saying there were “more important questions out there” than the latest twists in the affair.

Some Labour MPs worry Starmer is so weak he couldn’t weather further scandal. One compared his position to that of Boris Johnson after survived the outrage over parties at Downing Street during Covid lockdowns, but before the sexual misconduct allegations against a Tory lawmaker that ultimately secured the former prime minister’s downfall.

Another factor that keeps the premier in place is that no one is confident they would get the successor they want, one of the Labour MPs said. Many fear a messy and protracted contest.

Those “who want Starmer to remain prime minister are those people who are worried who the Labour Party may pick to have instead,” Conservative MP Caroline Johnson said.

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(With assistance from Fran Wang and Lucy White.)

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