Spanish Socialists weaken in election polls after train crash

Rodrigo Orihuela, Bloomberg News on Nov 2, 2026

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MADRID — Support for Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dropped following one of the deadliest train crashes in Spanish history.

Sánchez’s Socialist party has about 24.6% backing among voters, compared with about 26% a week earlier, according to a poll by SigmaDos published Monday by newspaper El Mundo. This would grant the Socialists between 97 and 103 seats in parliament in a Nov. 29 national election, down from the current 121.

The center-right People’s Party, already the biggest group in the country, is set to win 31.1%. That’s up from 30.6% and would result in 133 to 139 seats.

The poll was conducted in the two days after an Oct. 28 high-speed train crash killed 69 people, while another survey, published Sunday night by El Español, showed similar trends. The collision was Spain’s second mass train disaster this year.

Following the tragedy, the government declared three days of mourning, which ran through Saturday, and most parties suspended political activities — with the exception of Vox, the far-right party currently polling in third place. El Mundo’s poll shows Vox’s support at 19.3%, down from 19.8%.

The catastrophe has upended the Socialists’ strategy for the Nov. 29 snap election. Sánchez called the ballot as he sought to tap into social angst over housing affordability and his party was relying on their defense of social policies and their leader’s charisma to win.

Prior to the tragedy, the vast majority of polls had Sánchez losing the election.

A majority in parliament requires 176 seats, meaning the PP would need support from Vox.

Note: The survey consisted of 2,025 interviews by phone and online, conducted between Oct. 29 and 30, with a 2.1 percentage point margin of error.