Democrats want Anna Paulina Luna's seat. Redistricting makes it harder

Shauna Muckle, Tampa Bay Times on Oct 29, 2026

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CLEARWATER, Fla. — GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna projected confidence on stage at a rally on Saturday, 10 days before Election Day.

“When we choose to pick our battles, we win. I don’t play to lose,” she told a crowd of hundreds of party faithful at Orange County Choppers Road House and Museum.

In just a few days, voters will decide between Luna, who is vying for a third term, and retired Army Brig. Gen. Leela Gray, a Democrat, in a redrawn, red-leaning district centered in Pinellas County.

While other Republican incumbents in Tampa Bay, like Reps. Gus Bilirakis and Laurel Lee, barely mention their opponents, Luna has fought back against Gray’s argument that the GOP incumbent is corrupt.

Luna’s fighting words represent her direct, combative style of politics. Her defense of her record also signals the political environment for Republicans in once-safe districts amid President Donald Trump’s near record-low approval rating.

After promoting her record on beach renourishment and work to ban congressional stock trading on Saturday, Luna railed against Gray’s attack ads, arguing Gray is misleading voters by tweaking the headline of a Tampa Bay Times article in an ad. (Gray’s team has denied wrongdoing.) Luna called out Gray’s stock ownership in big tech companies like Alphabet and Nvidia.

Democrats, in turn, argue Luna is corrupt. They point to an October Mother Jones article that reveals a defense company that Luna’s husband partially owns has received millions via government contracts since Trump took office. A spokesperson for Luna said the contracts have “nothing to do with the Congresswoman” and were awarded based on merit.

Redistricting by Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Republican-led state Legislature shored up Congressional District 13 for the GOP. The new district took in a red portion of coastal Pasco County and lost parts of blue St. Petersburg and Gulfport. It favored Trump by more than 13 points, a two-point shift to the right.

In 2024, in a less red district, Luna trounced Democratic opponent Whitney Fox by nearly 10 points.

But political forecasters have shifted the race closer to Democrats than they did in 2024. Cook Political Report and other analysts consider the race “lean Republican,” meaning they expect a somewhat competitive race.

Gray’s team is pointing to those ratings changes as a sign that Democrats stand a chance in this long-sought district.

“This is not 2024. This is 2026,” Gray said after she cast her mail ballot last Thursday and rallied supporters alongside former U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and U.S. Rep. Sara Jacobs, D-California.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee considers the race a key pickup opportunity, a sign of the national party’s bullish attitude this cycle. Republicans, meanwhile, have spent more resources in Florida targeting Democratic incumbents who stand to represent red-leaning seats after redistricting — most notably Reps. Kathy Castor of Tampa and Jared Moskowitz in South Florida.

Here’s what to know about this closely-watched race.

2 veterans face off

Democrats have emphasized Gray’s status as a retired brigadier general, a one-star designation that requires congressional confirmation. Gray spent 30 years serving in the U.S. Army.

It’s a point of comparison with Luna, whose decision to enlist in the U.S. Air Force at age 19 is a key part of her personal story. She spent six years there.

Both candidates have showcased their ties to the armed forces. Gray held a campaign event last week at a Veterans of Foreign Wars outpost near Indian Rocks Beach.

Luna has appeared alongside Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins to talk about improving services.

Gray’s camp says about 60,000 veterans live in District 13, making them an important constituency to win over.

Limited polling shows a close race

The majority of polls in this race have come from Democrats. Luna sponsored one poll in August, before the primary, that shows her up eight points over Gray.

Democrat-sponsored polls tell a different story. Two Democratic polls before the primary show Luna up a few points over Gray. Two polls after the primary, both sponsored by the House Majority PAC — which is seeking Democratic control of the lower chamber — show Gray up by five points and one point, respectively.

Luna has cast doubt on the reliability of the Democratic polls. Her campaign spokesperson said Saturday that an internal Republican poll shows Luna ahead, though that poll has not been released.

Luna outraises Gray

As of Oct. 14, Luna reported raising more than $4.3 million to Gray’s more than $2.9 million. Both have less than $1 million left on hand.

But Democrats have lifted Gray with a tranche of outside spending worth over $4.5 million. The House Majority PAC, affiliated with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, spent nearly $3 million against Luna this month.

GOP groups such as the Freedom Caucus Fund and Maha (Make America Healthy Again) PAC have contributed a total of $1.6 million in outside spending on Luna’s behalf.

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