WASHINGTON — If history is any guide, President Donald Trump's low approval rating in Michigan could spell trouble for Republican candidates in the state's critical midterm elections.

Public opinion of Trump already hit a record low in battleground Michigan earlier this year, and the GOP president's numbers have not meaningfully improved ahead of Election Day, according to a new statewide poll from The Detroit News and WDIV-TV (Channel 4).

The poll of 600 likely general election voters conducted Oct. 19-22 found that about 59% disapprove of Trump's job performance, compared with 39% who approve. Those numbers are virtually unchanged from a late summer poll that also found a steep decline in Trump's popularity since the early days of his second term.

The new poll shows even more likely voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the war he launched against Iran eight months ago and his handling of U.S. relations with Canada.

"What has struck me since September is there's been no improvement, really, on any of these numbers," said Richard Czuba, pollster for the Lansing-based Glengariff Group. "We have to look at that 39% number in a perspective of history and understand it is amongst the lowest presidential job approvals we've seen going into a midterm."

"This puts Trump right at where George W. Bush was in 2006, which was by no means a good year for Republicans," Czuba said. That year, in the depths of another unpopular Middle East war in Iraq, then-Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow beat her GOP challenger, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, to win reelection by more than 15 points.

Trump's low approval rating, Czuba said, is an ominous sign for Republicans in this year's heated fight for a U.S. Senate seat, which features GOP former congressman Mike Rogers against Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, and in other key races downballot for the U.S. House and state legislature in Lansing.

The Glengariff Group performed the live-operator survey for The News and WDIV. The margin of error was plus-minus 4 percentage points, with 85% of respondents contacted by cellphone.

Trump has encouraged voters in Michigan and across the country to pretend he is on the ballot on Nov. 3, but the new poll found that his overall favorability — and approval on some key Michigan issues — is deeply underwater.

"Republicans have to do a better job of reaching across and winning some of those disapprovers," Czuba said. "They just need some of them. The math demands it."

Trump unpopular on economy, Iran and Canada

The survey found that approval in Michigan for Trump's handling of the economy is roughly in line with the president's overall approval rating, but markedly worse on the Iran War and his handling of the United States' relationship with Canada.

Poll participants disapproved of Trump on the economy by a margin of 38% to 59%. About half of respondents (49.5%) said they strongly disapprove, including 54.5% of self-identified political independents.

On the Iran war, respondents disapproved of Trump by a margin of 30% to 65%. That includes 81% disapproval among political independents and 63% disapproval from likely voters who said they lean Republican.

Czuba said the war has been the key issue sinking Trump's approval in Michigan.

"Even two years ago, Trump's numbers were considerably better. His favorable-unfavorable was much better, and this is why voters elected him," the veteran Michigan pollster said. "But that has turned sharply, specifically since the start of the war. It is the Iran war which has turned his numbers."

While campaigning Oct. 25 in Port Huron, Trump defended his war against Iran, arguing the conflict and ensuing higher fuel prices were necessary to prevent the Iranian regime from gaining access to a nuclear weapon.

“I thought gas would be double and triple," Trump said. "And it’s a small price to pay for taking a nuclear weapon away from maniacs."

The president's approval rating is even lower on the United States' relationship with Canada, an economic and cultural pillar in Michigan. Poll participants disapproved of Trump's performance on that issue by a margin of 27% to 68% following almost two years of hostility by the president toward Michigan's international neighbor.

"What really startled me was that approval of his handling of Canada is at 27%," Czuba said. "Michigan is so tied to Canada. That feels like a number we have to pay attention to, because our relationship to Canada is so important."

Czuba said he was struck by 43% disapproval by self-identified "traditional Republicans" on that question.

"That is startling," he said.

Midterm could resemble '22 abortion ruling aftermath

Czuba suggested that approval or disapproval of Trump could be a decisive factor in Michigan midterm races up and down the ballot, much like the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn its decades-old Roe v. Wade abortion rights precedent was for midterm elections in 2022.

The 1973 case established a constitutional right to abortion, but the court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization case in June 2022 wiped out that right at the national level.

Democratic politicians in Michigan, such as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, campaigned aggressively on the issue that summer and fall. She ultimately won reelection over GOP opponent Tudor Dixon by nearly 11 percentage points.

"This year, the fulcrum point here is whether you approve or disapprove of Trump, and it is far bigger than abortion was in 2022," Czuba said. "If you supported Roe v. Wade, 73% went to Whitmer. If you opposed Roe v. Wade, 80% went to Dixon. And that was the fulcrum point of the race."

He said a similar phenomenon could play out in the marquee Senate race between Rogers and El-Sayed. Rogers, of White Lake Township, is a former seven-term congressman who has campaigned with Trump while also trying to carefully distance himself on topics like Canada and the Iran War. El-Sayed, of Ann Arbor, is a doctor by training and former public health official who has vigorously tried to connect his opponent to the unpopular president.

"In 2026, Trump's approval or disapproval is the fulcrum point. And it's even sharper," Czuba said. "El-Sayed is taking 83% of Trump disapprovers. Rogers is taking 92% of Trump approvers. The problem for Rogers is there just aren't enough Trump approvers to win with that dynamic, and I suspect that's a dynamic that's playing out down the ticket."

Czuba said that Rogers, who trailed El-Sayed in the new poll by about 6 percentage points, needs to win over more Michiganians who disapprove of the president.

"It feels like Mike Rogers has been trying, saying the problem is a Michigan problem," Czuba said. "'Whitmer and the Democrats have run Michigan.' He's tried that conversation, but it keeps getting nationalized. If this race were more of a Michigan-oriented race, I think Republicans would be doing better. But it's become nationalized."

He also noted that Trump's insistence on promoting and campaigning with his preferred candidates makes it difficult for Rogers and others to carve out their own lanes with voters.

"Trump won't let anybody give anybody an inch to do what they need to do. It's becoming very difficult terrain for Republicans."

Voter voices: Democrat, traditional Republican share woe over Trump

Michael Buono of Romeo participated in the poll and identified himself as a traditional Republican who has previously voted for Trump. He said he will probably vote for GOP candidates like Rogers and gubernatorial nominee John James on Election Day, though not enthusiastically. He is considering not voting at all.

"More than ever it's a feeling that who we vote for is not making a good difference one way or the other," the 44-year-old said. "Maybe a Republican vote is a slower demise than a Democratic vote. But confidence in the system and the people that we're sending is, for me, certainly at an all-time low."

Buono, who works in informational technology, said that "Trump 47 feels a bit different than Trump 45, and not necessarily for the better. Mostly in negative ways." His comment was a reference to the president's two non-consecutive terms.

"I think (Trump) found he needed to reach out and get some help from other places that, seems to me, has led him down a path that has him acting not in the best interests of Americans. It's not in the original ethos of MAGA," Buono said, referring to Trump's Make America Great Again political movement and its "America First" orientation.

"I'm old enough to remember the Iraq and Afghanistan wars well enough, and the reasons that we got involved in the way that we did. And thinking back to President Trump's take on that war at the time, he was pretty outspoken about getting stuck in an endless kind of debacle with a Middle East country. This feels much the same."

"I just can't quite figure out why," Buono said. "We, I don't think, as Americans, see a smoking gun that constituted the actions that we've taken so far in the past six months, or whatever it's been."

He added: "In order to win the presidency ... maybe (Trump) felt it was necessary to take quite a bit of money from Israel sympathizers or Israel-based entities and people. Yeah, the Israel thing is a bit of a strange one for me."

Buono said that Trump's endorsement of downballot candidates "does not hold the weight it used to." He still supports Republicans, however, because he feels the party aligns more closely with his Catholic faith and conservative values.

Democratic voter Christine Fothergill, who lives in rural Muskegon County, said she strongly disapproves of Trump and his job performance for several reasons — including the Iran war.

"My husband is a veteran, and so being involved in this Iran conflict has been mentally very difficult for him, especially because of the state of the military — it's just kind of in disarray," the 50-year-old said.

Fothergill, who works in operations for a telehealth company, mentioned that her dislike for the president stems from her childhood. She grew up near Atlantic City, New Jersey, where Trump opened the Trump Taj Mahal hotel and casino in 1990.

"I had a grandfather who was in the blue-collar industry, and we saw like what Trump did to blue-collar workers and and a lot of businesses. Trump bankrupted a lot of people and never paid bills, so I've never been an advocate for him," she said.

Now, in 2026, Fothergill decried price hikes on everyday goods and said Trump's decisions were a big reason for cost-of-living woes.

"My propane is going to be super high this winter. Gas is super expensive. Groceries are expensive," she said. "I work from home. I can survive gas prices. My neighbors, they're rabid Trumpers. But it's hurting them."

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