In the back of a Brandon office park, roughly 30 volunteers spent a Thursday evening hyping up Democratic U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor in phone calls with voters.

The Hillsborough incumbent has coasted to reelection for nearly two decades. Then Gov. Ron DeSantis led a mid-decade redistricting effort, coloring Castor’s reliably blue seat red.

The new Congressional District 14 kept suburban Town ‘N Country and affluent South Tampa, while absorbing much of red-leaning eastern Hillsborough County. In 2024, it would have gone for President Donald Trump by roughly 10 points.

Castor and her team have a lot of convincing to do.

Among the attendees at the phone banking event: an enthusiastic group of University of South Florida fraternity brothers. A racially diverse crowd of older millennials and Gen Xers. U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Washington, who chairs House Democrats’ campaign arm. And Castor herself, who talked about lingering effects from the 2024 hurricanes with a no-party-affiliated voter named Joel.

“I never thought my congresswoman would be calling me on the phone,” he gushed, promising Castor his vote.

“I might just want to call him back, just for fun,” Castor joked after hanging up.

When Castor announced that she’d run for reelection in a reshaped District 14, forecasters gave Republicans the edge. Basic electoral math suggests swinging a district by more than 10 points is a daunting task.

Flash forward almost six months, and forecasters have improved Castor’s odds.

Across the country, Democrats are seizing on broad dissatisfaction with inflation and the Iran war to chip away at races that once seemed reliably red. Some top national Republican elected officials concede that they’re likely to lose their House majority.

Most forecasters consider District 14 a toss-up, a rare designation amid an increasingly polarized U.S. House map. Cook Political Report describes the race as “still quite winnable for Castor in this political environment,” despite Democrats’ registration disadvantage in the district.

Facing Castor is former GOP state Rep. Mike Beltran, who is emphasizing his position as a small-government conservative willing to defy his own party during his six years in the Legislature.

“I voted against Gov. Ron DeSantis when I had to,” Beltran told the Washington Reporter, a right-leaning news outlet. “In fact, every speaker, I voted against.”

Each has good reason to run as something of a centrist: Castor in a red district and Beltran in the shadow of an unpopular presidency. Beltran has pushed for cutting taxes and tackling the national debt. Castor paints herself as a local champion who reliably lands dollars for projects like MacDill Air Force Base and public transit. She frequently slams the president’s tariffs and cuts to Medicaid.

Both parties have spent millions flooding Hillsborough’s airwaves with negative ads. Trump’s midterm political action committee put almost $5 million into this contest, one of its higher sums.

In this closely watched race, here’s what the candidates are saying to voters.

Beltran’s case against Castor

Before a crowd of Tampa Bay Young Republicans at a swanky Harbour Island restaurant, Beltran spent most of his speaking time ripping into Castor.

He attacked her voting record, which he described as in lockstep with Democratic leadership. He knocked Castor for saying former President Joe Biden “led one of the most historic presidencies of my lifetime” in 2024.

One audience member yelled, “What planet does she live on?”

He also tied Castor to state Rep. Angie Nixon, the progressive Democrat running for U.S. Senate in Florida. The National Republican Congressional Committee put out a news release after Nixon’s primary win that read, “Meet Kathy Castor’s BFF: Police-Hating, Criminal-Loving Angie Nixon.”

Castor and Nixon have not campaigned together. Castor has instead shared the stage with more moderate Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly. The Democratic representative recently crossed the aisle to support a GOP resolution condemning socialism in “all its forms.” That served as a rebuke of the Democratic Socialists of America, of which Nixon is a member.

Beltran said he’s keeping the focus on Castor for a reason.

“It has to be a contrast when I’m running against an incumbent,” Beltran said in a brief interview with the Tampa Bay Times. “We have to talk about why we should have something different than what we had.”

Beltran’s supporters say he’ll be a fresh, independent-minded voice after 20 years of Castor. The 42-year-old lawyer has served many of Congressional District 14’s voters as a state representative. Hillsborough Commissioner Josh Wostal pointed to Beltran’s double-digit win in an eight-person primary as a sign of his name recognition.

“He’s one of the, if not the most principled, former elected officials I’ve ever met,” said Wostal, who endorsed Beltran in the primary. “A very important quality that he has, that I also have, is a willingness to buck his own party.”

Democrats’ case for Castor

Democrats have attacked Beltran in return. During an October radio debate, Castor went after Beltran for sponsoring a state bill that would impose a near-total ban on abortion, unpopular among a majority of Florida voters. (Beltran’s 2024 bill died in committee.)

And an ad from Castor and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee goes after donations Beltran received from insurance industry players. While he served in the state Legislature, he backed a bill that set up a $1 billion state fund for property insurers, an effort to keep companies writing policies in the state after Hurricane Ian.

The ad, set to crescendoing string music, says, “Mike Beltran helps his biggest donors, and we pay the biggest price.”

Speaking at a candidate forum on Friday, Beltran said the attack refers to about $150,000 he received “from various different businesses” during his six years in the Legislature.

“She raised more money from PACs just in a quarter or two than I’ve raised in all my outside fundraising my entire legislative career,” Beltran said.

But in interviews, Castor has largely focused on affordability issues and her record of crossing party lines.

“The harder you work, the luckier you get” during elections, Castor said. “People know that I’ve just built relationships over the years across the political spectrum, worked across the aisle to get things done.”

Castor recently drew headlines for co-sponsoring the Ratepayer Protection Act to protect consumers’ energy bills from data centers. Her bill passed almost unanimously in the House but stalled in the U.S. Senate, where some Democrats said the legislation didn’t go far enough.

Beltran argues that Castor’s actions are motivated by the upcoming election, and she “suddenly discovered bipartisanship a couple of weeks ago.”

But Castor’s record was enough to win the endorsement of Air Force veteran and retired judge Greg Holder, who otherwise favors Republicans.

“My wife and I believe strongly in integrity and service and professionalism,” Holder said. “We seem to have lost to a certain extent that common decency, and Kathy brings that to the table.”

The only problem? Redistricting moved Holder out of Castor’s district after two decades. Meanwhile, voters in suburbs like Brandon, Ruskin, Fish Hawk and Plant City are seeing Castor on their ballot for the first time.

Holder said he recorded an ad for Castor pointing to her support for veterans and MacDill Air Force Base, which remains in her district.

He just has to hope Castor’s new voting base is listening.

_____

©2026 Tampa Bay Times. Visit tampabay.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.