It’s a good time to own a TV station in South Florida, perhaps not such a good time for factual political discourse.

Candidates and super PACs are spending millions of dollars on stations in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach television markets to sell the purported virtues — or sound the alarm about the supposed shortcomings — of U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz.

In one hour on one station Thursday morning, a viewer could see a 30-second spot from a super PAC tied to President Donald Trump criticizing the Democratic incumbent for trading stocks while in office. Then an ad from the Moskowitz campaign shows the congressman pumping gas and touting his efforts to reduce the cost of living.

There’s more: Another airing of the anti-Moskowitz ad, a different one from the congressman highlighting a school and gun safety law he sponsored in response to the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School massacre, a second showing of the Stoneman Douglas ad, and a third appearance of the anti-Moskowitz spot that concludes: “Politics Pays. Ask Jared Moskowitz.”

Political advertising certainly pays in the final stretch of one of the nation’s closest U.S. House races, in South Florida’s 25th Congressional District, where Democrat Moskowitz faces Republican former Mayor Scott Singer of Boca Raton.

The ad blitz is just beginning. As of Thursday, the media tracking firm AdImpact reported $1.1 million of ads aimed at helping Singer and $1 million ads to help Moskowitz have aired.

Besides the Moskowitz campaign’s own advertising, Singer’s campaign has been raising money but so far hasn’t done general election TV spending.

Reports filed with the Federal Election Commission and the Federal Communications Commission and data compiled by the ad tracking company AdImpact show enormous spending by No Going Back, a new political committee associated with Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC.

No Going Back has reserved much more time. As of Sept. 10, AdImpact reported, the PAC had booked $6.8 million of 25th District ad time; it has since reserved more.

The reason is clear, said Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University.

“Because of the way the districts are drawn, there’s not that many competitive races nationally. This one is a competitive race, so it’s going to get a lot of attention,” Wagner said. “There aren’t many close seats that Republicans have a chance of picking up. This is one of them, so you’re going to see a lot of money from both sides to try and carry this seat.”

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, also said the close race means more spending. “We have the race as a toss-up and I think the level of investment you’re going to see suggests both sides view it that way as well,” he said via email.

Trump factor

Beyond money from his super PAC, Trump has influenced the South Florida contest in many ways, and his presence continues to be felt.

The 25th District was created earlier this year by Republicans who control Florida state government. Trump pushed Republican-controlled states across the country to reshape the boundaries of congressional districts in an attempt to elect more Republicans and fewer Democrats.

Moskowitz’s old district was cut up, and the parts redistributed to the newly crafted 25th District, which runs along the ocean from Delray Beach to Miami Beach.

All the independent analysts — Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Cook Political Report and Inside Elections — rate the 25th District as too close to call, which means voters’ feelings about Trump could help determine the outcome.

A president’s party usually loses seats in the subsequent midterm election, and Trump’s favorability rating is unusually low.

A Battleground District Project poll of the most competitive House Districts in the country, released Thursday by the Cook Political Report, found Trump was viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 56% of likely voters.

In the 37 districts Cook rates as toss-ups or close, Democrats hold a two-point advantage, 49% to 47%. The 25th is one of those districts.

Among voters nationwide, a recently released New York Times/Siena Poll found Democrats leading Republicans 51% to 43%, a nine-point lead that suggests a possible “blue wave” election for the Democrats.

All in with Trump

Trump won the territory in the new 25th District by 9 points in 2024, after Democrat Joe Biden won it by 5 points in 2020.

If people who voted for Trump two years ago aren’t enthusiastic, that could be bad for Singer. If they’re energized, and want to heed the president’s exhortation that his supporters should vote as if he’s on the ballot again, that could help Singer.

Singer wasn’t an original Trump supporter. When Trump first ran, Singer was like many Florida Republicans who supported former Gov. Jeb Bush for the 2016 nomination.

He later came on board with Trump, and has billed himself as an “America First” Republican, both as mayor and congressional candidate, echoing one of the central themes of the president’s first campaign.

In early September, Trump endorsed Singer. And Singer attended Trump’s midterm Republican convention in Dallas, posting praise and pictures about it on social media.

Singer’s campaign spokesman said his candidate is honored to have the president’s endorsement.

Wagner said the question of whether it’s helpful for Singer to be seen as close to Trump is “complicated.”

“Especially in the Republican base, the president’s support in Florida has proven to be very significant among Republican core voters,” Wagner said. “How meaningful that endorsement will be in November is part of what this election is about.”

Kondik is more skeptical. “I don’t think hugging the president is ultimately going to be all that helpful when the president’s approval is underwater in so many places, including very likely in this district,” he said.

Also this month, the National Republican Congressional Committee added Singer to its list of 27 key candidates in its “MAGA Majority” program. And on Sunday, House Speaker Mike Johnson is holding a luncheon fundraiser for the Singer Victory Fund in Boca Raton.

VIP admission is $5,000 a person or $10,000 for a couple, and gets the donor a photo with the speaker. General admission is $1,500. One of the hosts is state Rep. Meg Weinberger, a Palm Beach County Republican widely known as “MAGA Meg.”

Moskowitz posted a copy of the invitation on social media, and trolled Johnson and Singer for the timing of the luncheon, saying he’d be busy preparing to observe Yom Kippur, which begins at sundown.

“The House majority runs through FL-25, and Scott is honored to have the support of President Trump, the NRCC, and House leadership. Scott is focused on cleaning up Congress and has a proven record of success as mayor of Boca Raton,” Singer campaign spokesman Michael Stwarka said via email.

Moskowitz’s campaign declined to about the current state of the race or about No Going Back’s first ad.

In the PAC’s 30-second ad, the narrator says that, “In Congress Jared Moskowitz focuses on finances. His own,” citing occasions when he was late in filing required reports detailing stock trades. A Moskowitz spokesman has said in the past that trades have all been managed by an outside, third-party adviser, and the congressman hasn’t been involved in making them. He has voted for legislation to prohibit members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children from buying stocks while in office, though there would be exemptions for widely held investment funds and some investments in a trust.

Ad war

Television is the most expensive, but not the only form of advertising. The campaigns and super PACS are advertising online and on social media sites.

Among them: billionaire Elon Musk. His spending is so far much smaller than the Trump-affiliated super PAC. Musk’s America PAC reported to the Federal Election Commission it was spending to support Singer. CNBC and Politico reported in early September that America PAC disclosed spending $90,000 across eight contests, including the 25th District.

No Going Back also began airing a Spanish-language version of its anti-Moskowitz spot, AdImpact reported. (A woman’s voice narrates the English-language version; a man’s voice narrates the Spanish version.)

The super PACS associated with the Republican and Democratic leaders in the House have also reserved television time in the markets that serve the district. The Republicans’ Congressional Leadership Fund has reserved more money in the 25th District than any other race in the country.

One reason for the high spending: the Miami-Fort Lauderdale market is expensive. And it takes a lot of money on traditional broadcast television to reach voters in the district, partly because the market includes all or parts of seven congressional districts.

Two of the ads seek to introduce Moskowitz to the voters of the 25th District.

The first one focuses on his leadership of the bipartisan effort that led to passage of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School Public Safety Act when he was in the state Legislature. He is a graduate of Stoneman Douglas, where 17 people were killed and 17 injured in a 2018 massacre.

The second describes family history. His grandmother, whose parents were killed at Auschwitz, escaped Germany as part of the Kindertransport of refugee children. About 25% of the district’s voters are Jewish, the highest share in the state. Both Moskowitz and Singer are Jewish.

“In every generation, they rise against us,” Moskowitz says as the video shows death camp images. “Never again is now.”

The third spot focuses on the issue that is front and center for many voters: affordability. Beside showing Moskowitz pumping gas, it uses gas pump imagery to discuss the costs of prescriptions, food and housing, as the congressman narrates.

There’s a reason why Moskowitz, who’s been elected twice, is devoting time and money to introduce himself to the district. “When you redistrict and you move significant voters in and out of a district then the incumbent really has to introduce themselves to the new voters,” Wagner said.

Both candidates have emphasized their ties to the new district. About half of his old district is in the new one, and he talks about his previous work as director of the state Division of Emergency Management, which put him in a prominent position during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Singer touts his ties, including being born in Miami Beach, growing up in Fort Lauderdale, and living in Boca Raton where he served as mayor.

Overall, Kondik said, “Florida is hard to assess — it has swung so far toward Republicans in recent years, and some of the swing is probably enduring because of population changes. On the other hand, this district did vote for Biden in 2020, and Moskowitz is a good fit for it.”

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