The Trump administration has revived plans to end work authorization for certain spouses of H-1B visa holders, potentially forcing an unknown number of Bay Area residents from their jobs and making it harder for Silicon Valley companies to recruit and retain foreign workers.

The planned rule would reverse a 2015 policy allowing people on H-4 visas to work if their H-1B spouses are pursuing employment-based green cards. The National Foundation for American Policy, which supports the H-1B program, estimates that about 230,000 H-4 visa holders have work authorization nationwide, though federal data do not show how many work in California or the Bay Area.

President Donald Trump’s administration pursued the same restriction during his first term but failed to finalize it before President Joe Biden took office.

The proposed rule was added recently to the federal regulatory agenda and is under review by the federal Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. Even if the administration moves forward, implementing it would take several months, experts said.

“Many techies are married, so they have to make plans for their spouses and for their family,” said Russell Hancock, CEO of think tank Joint Venture Silicon Valley. “In Silicon Valley, you don’t make it on a single income. They think, ‘If I can’t make it work there, I’ll work in Canada, or Germany or some other European location.'”

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security, which put the proposed rule on the agenda, said it was under review by the federal Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, which evaluates prospective regulations. The agency declined to answer questions about the proposal, or to respond to criticism of it.

Employment authorization was granted to H-4 holders in response to years-long waits for green cards by H-1B workers from India, who make up the bulk of H-1B recipients but are subject to per-country annual caps on green cards, said Howard University political science professor Ron Hira, who studies the H-1B.

It’s difficult to assess what affect allowing H-4 holders to work may have on American workers, since the government does not produce data on where they work and how much they make, Hira said.

Stuart Anderson, executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy, which supports the H-1B, said the proposal reflects a discredited economic theory that the number of jobs is fixed, so anyone entering the labor force takes a position from someone else.

Data indicate that falling numbers of foreign workers doesn’t prevent unemployment of U.S.-born workers, Anderson said. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show the number of foreign-born workers in the U.S. dropped by about 1.8 million since the start of Trump’s second term, while the unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers climbed to 4.6% over that period, from 4.3%.

A 2022 report from Anderson’s group suggested around 40% of employed H-4 holders work in science, technology, math and engineering (STEM) fields.

Lawyer John Miano, who represented a group of American tech workers in a long-running but unsuccessful lawsuit targeting the H-1B and the H-4, called work authorization for H-4s “one more place where jobs are slipping away.” He noted that Homeland Security in President Donald Trump’s first term fought the lawsuit that sought to bar H-4 holders from working, while also proposing a rule to accomplish the same goal that was ultimately killed under President Joe Biden.

This time, Miano said, “It sounds like it’s more, ‘We’re going to say we’re going to do these things just before the (mid-term) election, and there’ll be no follow through.”

Should the administration pursue the rule, it would take several months before it could be enacted, Hira said.

The proposal comes as Silicon Valley technology giants, who each employ thousands of H-1B workers, enjoy an unprecedented proximity to the White House. Tech CEOs helped fund Trump’s second inauguration and his new White House ballroom, and shared the stage with the President at his inauguration. Trump has brought leading tech figures including Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and Bay Area venture capitalist Marc Andreessen into his orbit as advisers, but others close to Trump, like deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller, take a hard line on immigration.

“There are factions within the White House,” Hira said. “Skepticism of the H-1B is probably stronger in Trump 47 than it was in Trump 45, which is why I think we’re seeing more than talk.”

Hancock said there may be some disappointed tech leaders in Silicon Valley “who though they had curried favor with the administration, only to find it doesn’t win them any political points.”

A federal court judge in June threw out the $100,000 fee Trump imposed on H-1B visas for people applying from outside the U.S. But on Aug. 24, his administration announced it planned to charge $103,000 for every H-1B application subject to the annual 85,000 cap on new visas. Another rule, to boost minimum wages for H-1B workers, is expected to be finalized soon, Hira said.

Whether the rule to prohibit H-1B spouses from working goes into effect remains unclear, Anderson noted.

“Sometimes they don’t go forward with things they put on the agenda, and sometimes they do,” Anderson said. In this administration, it’s probably better to assume that they will go forward with something when it comes to restricting immigration. They seem to be going after every single way that people could come into the country lawfully, and restricting it in some fashion.”

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