ORLANDO, Fla. — Embattled Republican Rep. Cory Mills is locked in a tight reelection race that could be a “toss-up” in November, according to a recent forecast from a prominent political analyst.

But first, Mills, who has struggled to raise money this summer, will have to fend off challenges from three other candidates in the Republican primary Tuesday. And while recent polling suggests the incumbent congressman has the advantage, one of his opponents, former Fox 35 anchor Ryan Elijah, may be closer on Mills’ heels than he would like.

Even if Mills survives the primary, he may be headed for trouble in the general election, according to Silver Bulletin, a political analysis site run by statistician Nate Silver. The analysis, based on polls and factors like incumbency, fundraising and expert ratings, characterized a potential match-up between Mills and Democrat Bale Dalton as a “toss-up,” giving a slight edge to Dalton.

The winner of the November election will represent Congressional District 7, which takes in all of Seminole County and part of Volusia County. The district leans red.

Since he was first elected in 2022, Mills has had a rocky tenure in Congress. In addition to facing a congressional ethics investigation and, reportedly, another by the U.S. Department of Justice, Mills has been accused of misrepresenting his military record, engaging in unethical business dealings, assaulting a girlfriend and stalking an ex-girlfriend. Colleagues from both sides of the aisle have called on the congressman to resign, though he has denied any wrongdoing.

Mills still has one influential champion: President Donald Trump, who endorsed him in February. But even Trump’s support may be waning, as the president posted messages of support earlier this week for other Congressional candidates he had previously endorsed, but did not do so for Mills.

And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Friday during a press conference at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach that he is not backing Mills’ reelection. He didn’t urge Mills’ constituents to vote for a particular candidate, though.

“I have not endorsed Cory Mills, and I do not support Cory Mills,” DeSantis said.

Dalton, on the other hand, has the support of several current and former members of Congress, including former Sen. Bill Nelson, former Rep. Val Demings and former Rep. Stephanie Murphy. A former NASA chief of staff and U.S. Navy veteran, Dalton’s campaign seems geared toward winning over moderate and Republican voters hesitant to re-elect Mills.

Dalton rolled out a new TV ad this week highlighting his combat experience and taking aim at Mills’ controversies, including the ongoing ethics investigation.

“I’ll never do anything in Congress I wouldn’t be proud to put my name on,” Dalton says at the end of the 30-second ad.

Dalton has raised more money than any other candidate, Republican or Democrat, in the race. He brought in $176,653 last month and has $475,857 left to spend, according to the most recent reports, which run through July 29, from the Federal Election Commission.

But some analysts forecast a bleak future for Democrats in the right-leaning district. One organization, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which is based at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said Republicans “likely” will remain in control of the seat.

In the primary next week, Mills’ biggest threat likely comes from Elijah, who resigned from his TV role earlier this year in order to take on Mills. And over the past weeks, several prominent Central Florida Republicans, including Rep. Mike Haridopolos of Brevard County and Seminole County Sheriff Dennis Lemma, have lined up behind Elijah.

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