New poll shows Zach Dembo, Ralph Alvarado tied in Central Kentucky congressional race

John Cheves, Lexington Herald-Leader on Aug 7, 2026

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LEXINGTON, Ky. — A new internal poll obtained by the Lexington Herald-Leader shows a dead heat in Central Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District race with three months remaining until Election Day on Nov. 3.

According to the poll, conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, 47% of likely voters support Republican Ralph Alvarado and 47% favor Democrat Zach Dembo, with 6% undecided.

“The race starts off as a true jump ball, and the fundamentals show that Dembo has a clear path to victory over Alvarado,” an attached DCCC polling memo states.

The pollster quizzed 474 likely voters in the district on July 29 and July 30 by phone and by “text-to-web” interviews, a method by which participants are sent a link in a text that connects them to questions. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 4.5%.

The DCCC poll comes a month after another survey in the 6th District race gave Alvarado a narrow lead over Dembo, 42% to 39%, with 19% either undecided or preferring a third-party candidate. Other candidates this year include Peter Lynch of the Kentucky Party and independent Jay Bowman.

Pollsters in both surveys said Dembo is helped by his close association with two-term Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, who is popular in Kentucky, while Alvarado’s numbers are being dragged down alongside Republican President Donald Trump’s, who is losing Americans’ support over rising prices and the Iran war.

Dembo, a Navy veteran and former assistant U.S. attorney in Lexington, served as an aide to Beshear during the COVID-19 pandemic and recently was endorsed by the governor.

Alvarado, a doctor and former Kentucky state senator from Winchester who later went to Tennessee to become that state’s health commissioner, has touted his Trump endorsement.

According to the new DCCC poll, Beshear enjoys a 59% approval rating in the 6th District, with a 27% disapproval rating. Trump — who won the district in 2024 — now has only a 37% approval rating in Central Kentucky, with 53% of likely voters expressing their disapproval in the poll, the DCCC concluded.

Also, the DCCC said, Alvarado is linked in the public’s mind to “unpopular and disgraced” Republican Gov. Matt Bevin, with whom he ran for lieutenant governor in 2019.

Bevin and Alvarado lost that election to Beshear. In the years since their defeat, Bevin has been ensnared in controversies over criminal pardons he issued as he left office and his own divorce and child support battles waged in Jefferson County family court.

“With popular Governor Beshear’ s endorsement, the environmental tailwinds at his back and the ability to define Alvarado as a corrupt career politician, Dembo is on course to win in November,” the polling memo said.

Republicans have enjoyed a lock on the 6th District since incumbent U.S. Rep. Andy Barr of Lexington first was elected in 2012. In only one election after that — in 2018, with challenger Amy McGrath — has the national Democratic Party taken enough of an interest in the district to invest the resources for a serious contest.

But this year, Barr is running for the U.S. Senate seat opened by the retirement of Republican Mitch McConnell. Sensing a chance, the DCCC has declared the 6th District one of its “districts in play,” inviting national campaign donors to send money to Central Kentucky.

Responding to the DCCC poll on Thursday, Alvarado campaign spokesman Andy Westberry said, “We always knew this would be a tough race.”

“Over the last stretch,” Westberry said, “voters will decide if they want a congressman who represents Kentucky values or someone like Zach Dembo who will take orders from the radical Democratic Socialists now in charge of the Democrat Party.”

In his own statement on the poll, Dembo said: “People across Central Kentucky are hurting, and my opponent represents the same corruption and failed politics that got us here. I’m running to fight corruption, make sure healthcare is accessible for everyone and hold the powerful accountable.”

“I’ve built my career serving people in this commonwealth and country, from my time in the Navy to my work for Gov. Andy Beshear,” Dembo continued. “That’s exactly what Central Kentucky needs in Congress in this critical moment, and I’m humbled the voters of the Sixth District are taking notice.”