Analysis: 4 gubernatorial races that could affect the House majority

WASHINGTON — Four years ago, Republicans complained that Pennsylvania gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano torpedoed their downballot efforts in key House races across the commonwealth.

This time around, GOP nominee Stacy Garrity isn’t polling any better, again complicating House Republican campaigns in the Keystone State. And Pennsylvania is just one of a quartet of governors races — the others are Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado — that could have an impact on the fight for the House.

There’s a case to be made for including Arizona, Michigan and Ohio, where competitive gubernatorial races overlap with the House battleground. But the margins in those contests aren’t likely to be overwhelming or extraordinary. And in blue states such as New York and California, Democrats are hoping their nominees perform better compared with 2022, boosting their prospects down ballot.

But for four states, in particular, the race for governor could have broader implications.

Pennsylvania

In 2022, Mastriano, a state senator, won the GOP primary with help from Donald Trump and in the face of a Republican party establishment concerned he would become a general election headache. Those concerns were well-founded as he went on to lose to Democrat Josh Shapiro, the commonwealth’s attorney general at the time, by 15 points.

That margin likely limited House GOP takeover opportunities considering Democratic Reps. Susan Wild (7th District) and Matt Cartwright (8th District) each won reelection by just 2 points. Vulnerable Democratic Rep. Chris DeLuzio won by 6 points in the 17th District.

This cycle, it’s all about defense for Republicans. Reps. Ryan Mackenzie (7th District), Rob Bresnahan Jr. (8th District), Scott Perry (10th District) and Brian Fitzpatrick (1st District) are all vulnerable to some extent, and there’s no guarantee that the top of the ticket will be stronger compared with four years ago.

While GOP strategists believe that Garrity doesn’t have the same baggage as Mastriano and that she’ll run an actual campaign, she might not end up any stronger. In four polls from June and July, Garrity’s best share of the vote was 40 percent (compared with the 42 percent Mastriano secured in 2022). And she trailed Shapiro by 13, 15, 14 and 17 points in those surveys — not too different from Mastriano’s losing margin in 2022.

And let’s not forget, statewide offices are listed ahead of House races on Pennsylvania’s ballots.

Wisconsin

On the other side of the ledger, Republicans are excited about the race for governor in Wisconsin, where statewide offices are also first on the ballot.

The GOP optimism is rooted in Democrats potentially nominating state Rep. Francesa Hong in their Aug. 11 primary and the belief that self-described democratic socialist can’t win a swing state in a general election against the likely GOP nominee, Rep. Tom Tiffany.

It’s been a wild ride in the Democratic primary after one of the top contenders, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, dropped out of the race following reports of financial mismanagement by her campaign manager. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley reentered the race, this time with the blessing of outgoing Gov. Tom Evers, and 2022 Senate nominee and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is running as well, so there’s no guarantee Hong will be the nominee.

Even though Wisconsin sent unabashed liberal Russ Feingold to the Senate for nearly two decades, having Hong at the top of the ticket could complicate Democrats’ plans to unseat Rep. Derrick Van Orden in the battleground 3rd District. That’s where Democrat Rebecca Cooke is trying to reverse her 2024 loss to the Republican in a race Inside Elections rates a Toss-up. A Hong primary win would also probably end Democrats’ long-shot chances of knocking off Rep. Bryan Steil in the 1st District.

Iowa

There’s something in the water this cycle in Iowa, which has largely favored Republicans over the past decade but now has competitive races up and down the ballot.

In Trump’s first midterm election, in 2018, the state’s House delegation flipped from three Republicans and one Democrat to three Democrats and one Republican. Abby Finkenauer defeated Rep. Rod Blum in the 1st District, Dave Loebsack won reelection in the 2nd, and Cindy Axne unseated Rep. David Young in the 3rd. That happened as Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds was winning a full term by nearly 3 points over Democrat Fred Hubbell.

This time around, the political conditions appear to be worse for Republicans. Not only is there an unpopular Republican president in the White House, but state Auditor Rob Sand is within striking distance of becoming the first Democrat to win the governorship in 20 years. (If the election were held today, he’d likely win.) And Democrats have a chance at the Senate seat as well with state Rep. Josh Turek and GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson battling to succeed retiring Republican Joni Ernst.

Democrats also have a chance to shift the House delegation from its current 4-0 GOP advantage to a 3-1 Democratic edge. Inside Elections rates the race for the 1st District (between GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan) as a Toss-up. The 3rd District (Rep. Zach Nunn against Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott) is rated Tilt Republican. And the 2nd District (Hinson’s open seat, where Democrat Lindsay James faces Republican Joe Mitchell) is rated Likely Republican.

Federal races are listed first on Iowa’s ballots, but Sand’s strong, well-funded candidacy is contributing to Republicans’ headaches in the state. And it could help deliver multiple House districts to Democrats in November.

Colorado

In Colorado, GOP strategists are having flashbacks to 2022, when Democratic Gov. Jared Polis defeated Republican Heidi Ganahl by 20 points. That made it easier for Democrat Yadira Caraveo to win the new and competitive 8th District by less than 1 point over Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer (Polis carried the 8th by 9 points).

This cycle, there’s an unpopular GOP president and Republicans are at risk of getting walloped in the governor’s race. While Democrats nominated state Attorney General Phil Weiser in somewhat of an upset over Sen. Michael Bennet, the GOP got behind ministry leader Victor Marx over Kirkmeyer. In one of the strangest interviews in recent political memory, Marx could not or would not tell local politics reporter Kyle Clark how many people he had killed as an adult or rescued on his missions.

One Republican consultant, who requested anonymity to be candid, tried to see a silver lining.

“My hope is that the fait accompli nature of the gubernatorial race might actually help. It’s viewed as an irrelevant race, a done deal,” said the consultant, also noting that federal races are listed first on the ballot. “It might not drive turnout and environment to the extent a highly contested race would. But Marx has Republicans in Colorado very nervous.”

That concern stems from at least one highly competitive House race that Republicans probably need to win to hold their majority: the 8th District, where GOP Rep. Gabe Evans is in a Toss-up race against Democrat Manny Rutinel. But if the cycle spirals out of control against Republicans, things could get uncomfortable for Reps. Jeff Hurd (3rd District), Jeff Crank (5th District) and even Lauren Boebert (4th District).

“Are there enough voters in Colorado willing to split their ticket?” the Colorado consultant pondered. “We’re about to find out.”