President Donald Trump on Wednesday evening offered the nation a defense of America’s offensive against Iran, assuring the country the mission will end “very shortly.” Had he opted for inaction like all his predecessors, he said, the “most violent and thuggish regime on Earth would be free to carry out their campaigns of terror, coercion, conquest and mass murder from behind a nuclear shield.”

There is truth to this. Contrary to noise from the administration’s loud critics, Trump’s actions have dramatically changed the dynamic in the Middle East. White House support for Israel has helped the Jewish state neuter Iran’s terror proxies, which are now in shambles. The American attack last year on Iran’s nuclear facilities was a quick and undisputed success. The current war has left Iran’s leadership — what’s left of it — cowering in bunkers. Iran is isolated, having antagonized even Arab allies.

American firepower has considerably eroded Iran’s military capabilities, as Trump noted. “In these past four weeks, our armed forces have delivered swift, decisive, overwhelming victories on the battlefield,” the president said. “Victories like few people have ever seen before. … Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks.”

Putting an expiration date on a war, however, is an inexact science, to say the least. Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz because the United States has yet to launch an effort to secure the passage, in part because the logistics would require significantly escalating the conflict and employing American ground troops, something Trump has been reluctant to do. As a result, shipping has ground to a halt, disrupting the international economy and driving up oil prices.

Trump said he hasn’t given up on diplomatic efforts to reopen the strait, but he also has threatened Iran with additional strikes on important infrastructure targets if it continues to keep vital shipping lanes closed. Even some Arab nations are reportedly advocating for military action to clear the waterway. The administration must now consider the ramifications of ending the conflict without having disrupted Iran’s ability to dictate shipping terms through one of the most important passages in the world.

“One of the central pillars of the international order has been that the U.S. keeps the world’s sea lanes open,” Edward Fishman, director of the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, told The Wall Street Journal. “If this war ends with Iran in control of the world’s most important energy checkpoint, that would mark a clear abdication of America’s traditional role.”

Trump says he doesn’t want a “forever” war, and who can blame him? But sacrificing vital objectives for the benefit of an arbitrary timeline carries its own risks.

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