Betting market odds on potential 2028 presidential candidates

Carson Swick, Baltimore Sun on Jul 31, 2025

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Wes Moore insists he is not running for president in 2028. Still, an online betting market suggests Maryland’s governor has a slight chance of winning the Democratic nomination should he toss his hat in the ring.

As of Thursday morning, Polymarket showed Moore tied with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer as the seventh-most likely candidate to be nominated by Democrats, with 5% odds, in a crowded field that will surely feature newcomers to presidential politics. Moore’s odds of winning the nomination have fluctuated between 4% and 5% this month.

Moore has drawn continuous speculation by traveling to multiple states that are more significant than Maryland on the national political scene.

In May, Moore was the keynote speaker at the South Carolina Democratic Party’s Blue Palmetto Dinner and attended Rep. Jim Clyburn’s “World Famous Fish-Fry” — both historically important stops for Democrats running for president. He also headlined an NAACP event in the swing state of Michigan earlier this summer. Actor and major Democratic Party donor George Clooney also described Moore as “spectacular” and said the governor was “levitating above” the rest of the potential primary field.

Here’s a look at the potential 2028 presidential candidates whom Polymarket ranked alongside Moore on Thursday.

Who’s leading the way?

On the Democratic side, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (20% odds), New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (16%), and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (12%) were the only candidates with double-digit odds to win the 2028 nomination.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro each sat at 6%, while former Vice President Kamala Harris jumped up from 3% to 6% from Wednesday to Thursday. Harris’ decision not to run for California governor next year leaves 2028 open for the former vice president to take another crack at the White House.

On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance is the overwhelming favorite with 55% odds to become his party’s nominee for president in 2028. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the only other candidate with double-digit odds, at 12%.

Interestingly, President Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama are on their respective parties’ lists, though both would be constitutionally barred from running for a third term.

Celebrities and long shots

The Democratic list is also sprinkled with some celebrity and long-shot candidates — perhaps reflective of a new direction some Maryland experts believe the party could be taking.

Wrestler-turned-actor Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, sports media personality Stephen A. Smith and businessman Mark Cuban all came in with 2% odds. NBA superstar LeBron came in at 1%, while Clooney (

NFL legend turned-commentator Tom Brady is the only true celebrity on the Republican list, with odds less than 1%. Brady has long had a relationship with Trump, but has not directly endorsed him for office.

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