BALTIMORE — Four Maryland school systems expect to blow past their bus fuel budgets by a combined $6 million or more this school year if diesel prices stay high, with Anne Arundel County alone projecting at least $2.6 million in overspending.

Carroll County Public Schools estimates it will spend $1.8 million more than planned, Harford County more than $1 million and Worcester County $600,000, officials said. Baltimore County’s school board is scheduled to discuss its own transportation overspending in November.

More than 600,000 Maryland students ride school buses each day. Most school systems built their fiscal 2027 budgets assuming diesel would cost around $3.50 to $3.72 per gallon. On Friday, it averaged $6.34 in Maryland, up from $3.65 a year ago.

Several Maryland politicians, including Gov. Wes Moore, have blamed the U.S. war with Iran for rising fuel prices. In September, The Associated Press reported that diesel prices were more than 60% higher than before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in February.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers wrote in a Friday email to The Baltimore Sun that high diesel costs “reflect preexisting issues: years of Democrat policies that shuttered U.S. refineries, compounded by the destruction of refineries in the Russia-Ukraine war—a conflict the President inherited.” Rogers’ email did not address the war with Iran.

What the districts say

Matt Stanski, Anne Arundel County Public Schools chief financial officer, said at the school board’s Oct. 21 meeting that “geopolitical ramifications, both in the war in Iran and the war in Ukraine and … in Russia,” have contributed to high diesel costs, leading the school system to be “at least” $2.6 million over budget.

Jon O’Neal, assistant superintendent of operations for Carroll County Public Schools, estimated earlier this month that the school system would spend $1.8 million more than its anticipated transportation budget if fuel prices stay at current levels through the end of the budget year in June.

Harford County Public Schools told The Sun it is paying about $100,000 per month for diesel, and if the price holds, it expects to be more than $1 million over budget for the school year.

The Worcester County school system would spend $600,000 in additional payments for fuel if prices remain high, spokesperson Carrie Sterrs told The Sun in an email. “The Board does not historically budget for an annual fuel supplement,” she wrote. When the budget was developed, diesel averaged about $3.72 a gallon, she said.

Political reaction

U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat, condemned the war with Iran and its local fiscal impacts in a statement to The Sun on Friday.

“Students depend on school buses to take them to class, sports, and other afterschool activities,” he wrote. “Every day that Trump refuses to end this war is another day schools struggle with transportation costs. The best way to protect our troops, reduce skyrocketing gas prices, and stop wasting billions of taxpayer dollars is to end the war now.”

U.S. Rep. Johnny Olszewski Jr., a Democrat and former Baltimore County Public Schools teacher, wrote to The Sun on Friday: “Unfortunately, this is what President Trump’s war in Iran looks like at the local level: Maryland school systems facing millions of dollars in unplanned costs just to get kids to and from the classroom.”

“Every extra dollar spent on fuel is a dollar that can’t be spent on teachers, materials and school safety,” he wrote.

The Sun reached out to the U.S. Department of Education, which declined to comment.

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