Lula, Bolsonaro in dead heat as Brazil prepares to vote

Gabriel Diniz Tavares and Augusto Decker, Bloomberg News on Oct 3, 2026

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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro remain locked in a tight race as Brazil prepares to vote in Sunday’s election, according to a pair of new polls.

Lula would receive 45% to Bolsonaro’s 42% of valid votes, excluding blank and invalid ballots, in a first round scenario, a Datafolha survey published Saturday found, according to Folha de S.Paulo newspaper.

The leftist president would take 46% to Bolsonaro’s 45% of valid votes in the first round, a Quaest poll said, according to Globo, which commissioned the survey.

If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, the top two will advance to a runoff on Oct. 25.

Lula has 47% to Bolsonaro’s 46% of voting intentions in a runoff scenario before blank and invalid ballots are excluded, the Datafolha poll showed, with changes from the prior survey within the margin of error of plus or minus 2 points.

Quaest’s poll found Bolsonaro with 44% to Lula’s 42% of voting intentions in a runoff, within its margin of error of plus of minus 2 points.

Follow Brazil election coverage Sunday via our TOPLive blog, the Bloomberg mobile app and on Bloomberg.com.

Polls have consistently suggested that Lula and Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, are locked in a tight contest.

The race is set to determine whether Brazil will join a regional rightward shift that has seen conservative allies of US President Donald Trump win recent elections in Chile, Colombia and Peru.

Markets will be watching the first round margins closely for clues on how much momentum either candidate will carry into a potential runoff.

Brazil’s contest has been repeatedly upended by a major bank fraud case centered on Daniel Vorcaro, the jailed former owner of Banco Master SA.

Police are probing Flávio Bolsonaro’s dealings with the banker, after he approached Vorcaro for funding for a film about his father. The conservative challenger denies wrongdoing.

Lula, meanwhile, has suffered from revelations tying the Supreme Court to the scandal, which has stoked anti-establishment sentiment.

In the final weeks of the campaign, the president boosted benefits under the government’s flagship social program in a bid to regain momentum. He also banned online gambling to address concerns over mounting levels of household debt.

Datafolha surveyed 4,006 voters from Oct. 2-3. The poll has a confidence level of 95%, a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, and is registered with the country’s electoral court at number BR-01708/2026.

Quaest surveyed 3,702 voters from Oct. 2-3. The poll has a confidence level of 95%, a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, and is registered with the country’s electoral court at number BR-02197/2026.