Trump sees 'good chance' of Iran deal after pause in strikes

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran were engaged in diplomatic talks to end the Middle East conflict, but warned the two sides would return to fighting if negotiations didn’t yield a deal.

“The only reason they want to meet is because we’ve been hitting them very hard,” Trump told reporters Monday aboard Air Force One. “There’s a good chance that something could happen, and if it does good. If it doesn’t, we go back to doing what we were doing.”

The comments reduced the immediate prospect of a military escalation after Trump repeatedly threatened “massive” strikes on Iran.

Still, throughout the war, Trump has said talks were progressing and a deal was close, only for fighting to continue. It remains unclear whether the U.S. and Iran were engaged in substantive negotiations.

Trump’s remarks came after the U.S. held off attacking Iran for a third straight day on Monday, despite threatening a major new attack last week. Tehran, in turn, paused strikes on Gulf countries such as Kuwait. The two sides had returned to fighting in recent weeks after an interim peace deal signed last month effectively collapsed over the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices continued to slide with Brent falling below $88 a barrel after losing 8.7% on Monday — the most in more than three months. West Texas Intermediate was near $82 a barrel.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said Monday that while “it’s possible that mediators share messages from the U.S. side about current developments,” no formal negotiations are currently taking place.

Separately, Oman and Iran are trying to reach an agreement to restart shipping through Hormuz, according to people familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified talking about sensitive matters.

Tensions in the region remain high. The Iran-backed Houthis claimed on Monday they targeted Saudi Arabian oil facilities with drones, although they didn’t say when. Saudi Arabia hasn’t announced an attack from Yemen since Saturday morning, but did say Monday it intercepted several drones launched from Iraq at petroleum facilities.

Axios reported Sunday that Admiral Brad Cooper, the top U.S. commander overseeing the Middle East, recommended stopping strikes because they had reached the limit of their effectiveness, citing sources in the region. The New York Times also reported that military advisers told the White House not to escalate the conflict because of dwindling stocks of valuable interceptors.

During a meeting last week with Trump, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine said renewing strikes against Iran was possible but would raise concerns about U.S. stockpiles of key munitions, according to a person familiar with the conversation. Worries about depleted munitions were not the primary consideration, the person said.

On Monday, Trump said the U.S. has “a lot of ammunition,” but conceded “I’d like to have more, to be honest.” He blamed former President Joe Biden and arms shipments to Ukraine for the depleted U.S. arsenal, and singled out in-demand and hard-to-replace high-end interceptors such as Patriot missiles.

“A lot of equipment’s being built — the Patriots, in particular, are being built,” Trump told reporters.

Iran’s army said it halted its retaliation against U.S. bases and troops in the region in response to Trump’s decision to hold off on strikes. The Islamic Republic had been attacking the likes of Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan on a near-daily basis in the two weeks before the U.S. pause on Friday.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet Trump in Washington on Tuesday. He said he plans to press the U.S. leader on keeping a “constant watch” on Iran’s nuclear program, one of many issues now in limbo following the breakdown of the interim peace deal.

Iran has said there’s no change to the status of the Strait of Hormuz, meaning it’s likely to continue targeting commercial ships that don’t receive its permission before transiting. Traffic through the vital waterway — through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies flowed before the conflict — remains negligible. The U.S., meanwhile, is maintaining its blockade on Iran’s ports.

The lull in fighting came as Iranian and Omani officials met over the weekend in a fresh attempt to resolve shipping through Hormuz. Iran said the talks were constructive and some progress was made, though it gave no details, adding consultations were continuing.

In recent weeks, Iran tried to persuade Oman to establish a joint management system of the strait that may have effectively tolled ships. It’s unclear if the two are still discussing that, though Tehran has consistently said it wants to control traffic in the chokepoint.

The clashes between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia over the past week have also ratcheted up risks for shippers. The Houthis, a militant group based in Yemen, fired on vessels in the southern Red Sea after threatening any calling at Saudi ports.

A Saudi-led coalition responded with attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen on Friday and Saturday, leading the group to target the Saudi port cities of Yanbu and Jizan with missiles and drones. There was no immediate confirmation from the Saudi government or oil giant Saudi Aramco, whose facilities the Houthis said they targeted.

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(With assistance from Tony Capaccio, Jon Herskovitz and John Harney.)

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