Florida could get tropical system this weekend, hurricane center says

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jul 15, 2026

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday began forecasting the potential of a tropical depression or storm forming from a system targeting Florida.

In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said an area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf.

“Subsequent slow development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and or near the southeastern coast of the United States by early next week,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a 20% chance to develop in the next seven days.

For now, the National Weather Service in Melbourne says the a trough will form over the weekend across the Florida peninsula with a surface high pushing south of Central Florida bringing west to southwest wind and more moisture brought in from the Gulf.

“Rain and storm chances are forecast to increase as a direct result, with a return of scattered to numerous shower and storm coverage anticipated each afternoon from Friday through Tuesday,” the NWS stated. “Convection will be primarily driven by the west coast sea breeze pushing across the peninsula, with the sea breeze collision favored across the eastern peninsula each afternoon. Activity will then push offshore, diminishing across the local Atlantic waters through the overnight hours.”

The 2026 hurricane season so far has had just one named system, the short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur that developed in the Gulf and brought floods to Texas and Louisiana in June.

The next name on the hurricane season list is Bertha.

The season officially began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects this season to be below normal with the official forecast released in late May calling for 8-14 named storms, of which 3-6 would become hurricanes. Of those, 1-3 would become major hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or above.

An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

--------------