Washington weather: 'Very strong' El Niño could come. But what does that mean?

Kai Uyehara, The Seattle Times on Apr 27, 2026

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SEATTLE — If you thought this past winter was warm and dry, wait until El Niño comes to town.

Should the famed warm weather generator’s trajectory hold, next winter could see even warmer and drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest, experts say.

There is about a 61% chance that El Niño will emerge in the region between May and July and last through at least the end of the year, according to a forecast earlier this month from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

The center said there is a 25% chance we get a “very strong El Niño this winter. That could mean significantly less snowfall and snowpack for Washington, Levine said, exacerbating drought conditions the next summer along with wildfire risk.

You might’ve heard that Spanish name dip in and out of weather talk over the years.

The last time El Niño came to town in 2023 and 2024, it bumped temperatures 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial norms for the first time. This round has a 33% chance of being at least as strong.

So what is El Niño? It’s an abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, said University of Washington researcher Aaron Levine. This impacts where precipitation happens in the U.S. and globally in ripples, like a rock thrown in a lake.

For the Pacific Northwest, El Niño typically means warmer temperatures and below-average snowfall in the winter. For the American South, it can mean hurricanes.

But keep in mind that the impact of El Niño won’t really be noticeable until winter, save for perhaps a little extra rain in late summer, Levine said.

And numerous weather factors could alter El Niño’s impact in our area. The current forecast should not be taken as gospel.

Still, that’s not great news after the winter we just had. Not to mention that the state is entering its fourth severe drought in a row, just one of more than 61% of the Lower 48 states that are experiencing moderate to exceptional drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Snoqualmie had about 32% of its average snowfall between mid-November and mid-April, said National Weather Service meteorologist Harrison Rademacher. Even when snow dumped down in March after months of rain, the mountains were only at 40% of their average snowpack.

But again, it's early days. Keep your eye on the forecast.