Hurricane center says Caribbean-bound system could form over weekend

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Sep 5, 2025

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The National Hurricane Center on Friday continued to up the odds a system moving across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean could become the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure dubbed Invest 91-L associated with a tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic had disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week as it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said. “This system is likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week, and interests there should monitor its progress.”

The NHC gave it a 60% chance to develop in the next two days and 90% chance to develop in the next seven.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne said it’s too early to say if the system will have any impact on Florida, but forecast tracking models continue to creep closer to the state with the projected storm path shifting more to the west that what had been predicted earlier in the week.

Several models show it moving over either the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands or Windward Islands, and potentially threatening Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

If it develops, it would be the seventh tropical cyclone of the season and could become Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

Only one of the six named storms — Hurricane Erin — reached hurricane status, and that one grew to a powerful Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, although never made landfall.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in early August updated its season forecast to call for 13-18 named storms this year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.

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