LOS ANGELES — A steep drop in Los Angeles Unified student enrollment — 27% over about 10 years and 44% over about 20 — has not been matched by a proportionate drop in the number of campuses or employees, one of several markers indicating difficult decisions ahead for the nation's second-largest school system, a report released Thursday shows.

The contrast is creating a math problem for Los Angeles Unified: how to cut costs while also preserving what's most important for students — and also best for employees.

The challenge ahead is laid out in a study by the local nonprofit GPSN that acknowledges there are neither perfect nor easy answers.

The loss of students has "profound implications for the district's finances and operations, as fewer students mean less state and federal funding at the district level, resulting in reduced staffing, limited program offerings, and underutilized facilities," the report states.

At the same time, despite LAUSD losing more than 300,000 students since its peak enrollment 23 years ago, the number of operating schools has declined only slightly, less than 5%, the report says. "This mismatch contributes to underutilized campuses and thinly spread district resources."

Confronting the enrollment decline also plays out in staffing levels, employee pay and retiree health benefits, among other considerations.

The new report echoes concerns raised by L.A. schools Supt. Alberto Carvalho, although he has yet to fully address the financial implications. In budget presentations over the last few months, he has repeatedly said he must balance a potential future financial crisis with adequately meeting current needs.

He's also said that closing schools would be a last resort. First, he wants to save money by closing underused or inefficient buildings on campuses — while leaving the schools open. GPSN supports this strategy, while also expressing doubt that it could achieve the savings needed.

Although district officials on Thursday had not yet had an opportunity to respond to the new report, they've had to deal with the issues it raises on an ongoing basis — as have other school systems across the state and nation.

The Board of Education, under pressure from many constituencies, has been inclined to avoid cost-cutting and layoffs and has supported salary increases. Powerful constituencies that exert influence include the employee unions, active parent groups and a coalition of nonprofit advocacy groups that wants more resources poured into the highest-need schools and neighborhoods.

The GPSN report contrasts sharply with the perspective of the teachers union, which cited L.A. Unified's June 30 ending balance of $4.9 billion as evidence that it can afford to maintain staffing and provide employees, especially early career teachers, with a significant pay increase — far more than the 2% the district has offered to some unions in ongoing negotiations.

District officials have countered that temporary pandemic relief postponed the financial reckoning, but that the school system is now spending more than it is taking in.

Closing schools is no panacea

The complexity quickly becomes apparent when it comes to closing schools. Few proposals provoke such universal opposition; no community wants its school closed — and there is good reason for that.

Schools embody neighborhood ties going back generations. During the most intense period of the COVID-19 pandemic, schools became familiar and trusted centers for food distribution, COVID testing and vaccination.

A growing movement toward "community schools" positions campuses to offer a variety of family services including healthcare and enrichment programs, with a goal of improving academic achievement. And schools have recently offered an umbrella of support and protection for families affected by federal immigration enforcement.

Moreover, leading researchers say they have documented that closing schools hurts students — in terms of academic performance, college attendance and economic success. Students of color and those from low-income neighborhoods are disproportionately vulnerable because their communities typically lack political and economic clout regarding which schools are closed and how attendance boundaries are redrawn.

"Closing schools is extremely difficult," said former L.A. school board member Monica Garcia, who is a senior advisor for GPSN. "There are interests and good reasons and people committed to every service in the district. There's a constituency for them all."

But steadily falling enrollment can't be ignored, the report said.

Among the schools with fewer than 150 students last year, according to state data: Ann Street Elementary in Chinatown, 79 students; Annandale Elementary in Eagle Rock, 90; Albion Street Elementary in Lincoln Heights, 121; Clifford Street Elementary Math & Technology Magnet in Echo Park,128.

Why enrollment is dropping so fast

Since enrollment peaked, it has steadily declined at about 2% to 3% a year. The decline worsened considerably at the start of the pandemic and then seemed to return to previous trends. It slowed with the recent addition of transitional kindergarten, but that change may have more to do with adding a grade than increasing the number of students in the system over the long term.

Key factors largely beyond the district's control include lower birth rates, declining immigration and the high cost of living in Los Angeles. Data show a strong correlation between rising rents, for example, and declining numbers of students, the study showed.

Privately operated charter schools have had a modest effect on the enrollment picture over the last 10 years, but a huge one over the last 20. They enroll about 108,000 public school students compared with about 400,000 in schools operated by L.A. Unified.

The picture is not uniform. Some schools, such as Porter Ranch Elementary, in a prosperous northwest San Fernando Valley suburb, have had to manage overcrowding. Also, schools with the highest scores on state tests have less enrollment decline than schools with the lowest scores.

"Families choose safe, supportive and successful schools for their children when they can," Garcia said. And schools in any community can move the needle, she said, recalling instances when schools in low-income neighborhoods reversed or slowed down declining enrollment by offering families "clarity and quality of service."

The GPSN report cautions against over-generalizing based on a single data point, such as universally linking enrollment to high test scores.

High-performing schools, for example, tend to be located in neighborhoods with more economically secure families — which could explain both their stable enrollment and higher test scores.

Many lower-scoring schools have improved their test scores rapidly but they're still losing students — and not necessarily because parents dislike the school.

Enrollment has dropped across all racial subgroups, with Latino students — the largest share of LAUSD's student population — dropping by more than 114,300 students, a 28% decline, over the last 11 years. White student enrollment fell by about 13,000, a 24% decline over the same period. Although Black and Asian students make up a smaller share, their declines were steeper proportionally. Black student enrollment fell by 40% (more than 19,400 students), and Asian enrollment declined by 34% (about 7,400 students).

Too-small schools not the only issue

There also are issues to confront with staffing. Over an 11-year period ending in the 2023-24 school year, when enrollment declined by about 27%, staffing was all over the map. Data in the report showed:

•Teachers: down 22%

•School administrative support: down 20%

•School administrators: down 13%

•Aides: down 10%

•Counselors: up 69%

•Other support (including bus drivers/cafeteria workers): up 19%

For those who say more aides should be cut, there is the counter argument that aides are low-paid and therefore provide especially good value when used effectively.

The number of counselors spiked upward even as student enrollment went in the other direction. And yet, educators widely believe that student-to-counselor ratios were absurdly large.

United Teachers Los Angeles President Cecily Myart-Cruz took on the issue at this week's Board of Education meeting.

"There are 51 fewer psychiatric social worker positions budgeted and 32 fewer staff compared to last year at this time," Myart-Cruz said in testimony Tuesday to the Board of Education. "Meanwhile, students' needs are greater than ever. Our babies are witnessing and hearing about kidnappings and raids in their communities, every single day," she said, referring to federal immigration enforcement actions.

"Fewer social workers compared to last year is unacceptable."

Solutions don't come easy

There is no one solution.

One helpful change, said Ana Teresa Dahan, executive vice president at GPSN, would be basing state funding for school districts on enrollment rather than attendance. High-need communities have worse school attendance even though they need more services, experts have noted. The district and labor unions agree on this remedy, although tighter state finances stand in the way.

And when campuses must be closed, a community needs to understand the benefits that could result. Small middle and high schools typically lack resources to offer some programs, for example, and sometimes elementary teachers must manage multiple grade levels in the same room, Dahan said. And an unused campus could be taken over by a nonprofit that could continue to provide services to a community.

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